While the Hong Kong Government was set to roll out legal basketball betting in late 2026, it unexpectedly halted its implementation in mid-April 2026 allegedly due to concerns over the surge of prediction markets.
This marks a U-turn from the introduction and passing of the Betting Duty (Amendment) Bill 2025 in September 2025 to legalise basketball betting under a regulatory regime modelling the football betting regime.
Basketball betting
In June 2025, the Betting Duty (Amendment) Bill 2025 was gazetted with a view to introducing a regulatory framework with respect to basketball betting. One of the policy objectives is to combat illegal betting activities in Hong Kong. Following public consultation, the Bill was passed in September 2025.
The new regime on basketball betting closely mirrors that for football betting. Under the Betting Duty Ordinance (Cap. 108):
- The Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs is granted power to issue a licence to a company to conduct betting on the results of, or contingencies relating to, basketball matches and to impose licensing conditions to minimize the negative impact of gambling on the public, including conditions relating to the categories of matches on which betting may be conducted.
- On the calculation and collection of betting duty, just as football betting, the betting duty is charged at 50% on the net stake receipts derived from authorised betting on basketball matches.
However, the new regime was put on hold following the government’s announcement in mid-April 2026, citing that the introduction of basketball betting would be deferred pending a more in-depth review of the impact of the rapidly emerging overseas “prediction market” platforms, particularly those associated with illegal sports betting. The government stated that it was not an appropriate time to introduce a new betting product in Hong Kong, as there are concerns that more people may be drawn into illegal gambling.
Meanwhile, other lawful gaming products in Hong Kong such as horse racing, football betting and Mark Six remain operative. Bearing in mind legal football betting has been in place for over two decades, it is not apparent how legalising another type of sport betting will promote illegal gambling. Nonetheless, in light of the government’s recent announcement, the timeline for implementing basketball betting regime remains uncertain.
Prediction markets?
Prediction market is a platform enabling bets to be placed on the outcomes of a future event, which can be a sport, political or economic event, and even weather-related changes. Bets are often placed by buying typically binary “yes” or “no” event contracts. The contract concludes once the future event is determined.
According to the Investor and Financial Education Council (IFEC), an independent public organisation and a subsidiary of the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC), the trading price of a contract fluctuates and is influenced by the buying and selling activities of participants. Some platforms for prediction markets are built on blockchain and allow trading with cryptocurrencies.
Hong Kong regulators caution: Prediction markets could cross into illegal gambling
In April 2026, the IFEC warned that trading activities in prediction markets may constitute illegal gambling. The authority further noted that products under the prediction markets are not protected by the Securities and Futures Ordinance or any laws and regulations administered by the SFC.
In particular, the Chief Executive of Hong Kong described prediction markets to be “more than gambling; it is to do with a lot of speculation that sometimes makes use of virtual assets.”
Whether or not products traded on prediction markets fall under the ambit of the Gambling Ordinance (Cap. 148) has not been judicially tested in Hong Kong. The general position is that gaming involving an element of chance is unlawful unless licensed by the government or otherwise excepted under the statute. Betting with a bookmaker, whether or not the bet is received within or outside Hong Kong, is also prohibited.
Regulatory outlook
The government’s recent announcement reflects an unsettled legal status with respect to trading on the prediction markets. Specifically, the IFEC stated that “the trading activities and contracts of prediction markets are not investment products”. The precise boundary between high risk investment products and, at the opposite end of the spectrum, unlawful gambling remains to be delineated.
Companies that have adopted, or are exploring the integration of, prediction markets in their businesses should remain vigilant and take a proactive approach to identifying and managing regulatory exposure and stay closely attuned to shifts in the regulatory landscape.
In view of the recent halt of the legalisation of basketball betting, it is possible that an overhaul of the gaming legalisation which will cover both sports betting and prediction markets is under consideration.
